Africa: A Quiet PV Market

According to analyses by the African Solar Industry Association (AfSIA), when trade figures are taken into account, Africa's annual solar expansion nearly quadruples. There is little evidence of large inventories, so the modules being shipped to African countries are largely being bought and installed locally.

This solar revolution is spreading quietly. The real growth is not coming primarily from state-led large-scale projects, but from thousands of end-user sites: factory roofs, shopping centers, hotels, cell towers, farms, and residential complexes.

The logic of the African market is fundamentally different from that of Europe or North America. In countries like Nigeria, solar does not mainly compete with cheap grid power — it competes with diesel generators, which are expensive, noisy, maintenance-heavy, and subject to volatile fuel prices. Solar-plus-storage systems are changing the equation. In parts of Africa, payback periods are just one to two years, giving rise to a subsidy-free market driven by commercial self-interest.

This also explains the market's unique structure: about 85% of new solar capacity is installed in the commercial and industrial (C&I) sector. The driving force is businesses that depend on reliable power and see solar as a matter of competitiveness and operational reliability.

Mini-grids and battery storage can scale faster and more cost-effectively than traditional power plants and grid expansion. Central grids will not become obsolete, but their role will shift toward becoming part of an increasingly hybrid energy system.

China plays a key role. Chinese manufacturers dominate the global solar market, and falling prices for modules and storage are what make solar economically viable. At the same time, China's recent duty-free access for African goods points to a deepening economic partnership that goes beyond energy.

Growth is now spreading far beyond South Africa. About 82% of solar modules have recently been shipped to other African countries, especially West and East Africa.

For years, lack of electricity has held back economic development across much of Africa. The solar-plus-storage revolution is now enabling rapid, low-cost access to energy — a key driver of economic growth and rising living standards.